After back-to-back Team Penske wins, NASCAR heads to ISM Raceway’s one-mile flat trail in Phoenix for the fourth race of the year.

Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are riding streaks of eight top-12 endings dating back to last season, but both motorists will take a backseat to the recent dominating performances of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch at Phoenix.

Harvick (9/4) and Busch (7/2) have the shortest chances to win Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 and won at the course last season. This weekend, even if Harvick were to win, he’d join an elite group, becoming just the sixth driver in series history to win 10 or more Cup Series races in a single track; linking Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Jimmie Johnson, David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt.

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In three of those last four Phoenix races, Busch has led 359 laps, including 117 in his triumph during last year’s playoffs — the first under the new configuration of the track.

Phoenix’s monitor is comparable to Richmond and New Hampshire and it’s no surprise both Harvick and Busch have experienced similar success at those racks. Busch has won the previous two races at Richmond and the fall race at New Hampshire of 2017. Harvick won the most-recent race at New Hampshire and has finished in the top five in five of the past six races in Richmond.

But unlike in those previous races, all drivers will use a new car installment executed by NASCAR, one different from that which we watched the last fourteen days at Atlanta and Las Vegas. This year teams may use a different-sized tapered spacer — and no aero ducts — for the first time. They will use a 750-horsepower engine at Phoenix instead of the 550-horsepower engine at Vegas. NASCAR hopes to find a car. The new package could close the gap Harvick and Busch have had on the field.

So much in two races with the marginally differing rules package of NASCAR, Ford has five consecutive period wins and has led 65 percent of their laps. Ford motorist Aric Almirola, Harvick’s teammate, will be a sleeper motorist to watch this weekend. He was third in New Hampshire’s similar layout last season, fifth at Richmond and fourth last year’s fall race at Phoenix. Almirola is 20/1 to win on Sunday and he is liked by us in a matchup with Kyle Larson in -110.

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Odds to win 2019 TicketGuardian 500 in Phoenix

Odds provided by Westgate LV SuperBook

Kevin HARVICK 9/4
Kyle BUSCH 7/2
Brad KESELOWSKI 7/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 10/1
Chase ELLIOTT 10/1
Denny HAMLIN 15/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Aric ALMIROLA 20/1
Clint BOWYER 25/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Kurt BUSCH 30/1
Ryan BLANEY 30/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 50/1
Austin DILLON 50/1
Alex BOWMAN 50/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 50/1
Daniel SUAREZ 60/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
William BYRON 100/1
Daniel HEMRIC 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
Ryan PREECE 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (all others) 500/1

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