Best seed outlook: Can No. 1 Virginia exorcise last year’s demons now that the team is currently at full strength? Our version thinks. The Cavaliers have a 49 percent likelihood of cracking the Final Four and a 31 percent probability of accomplishing what would be the program’s first national title game.
With De’Andre Hunter, that wasn’t on the court this past year during UVA’s historic loss to No. 16 Maryland Baltimore County, the Cavaliers have been dominant on both ends — the only team ranking in the top five at Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and protection metrics. Yet more, Tony Bennett’s pack line shield is suffocating most every offensive opportunity and successfully turning games into stone fights. However, this year’s group is better on the offensive end and ought to breeze to the Elite Eight, in which it could meet Tennessee. Thanks to Grant Williams along with the wonderfully named Admiral Schofield, the No. 2 Volunteers are enjoying their best basketball in history. We provide them a 22 percent likelihood of reaching the Final Four.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 6 Villanova. Can it be”sneaky” to select the team that’s won two of the past three national titles? Not. But this hasn’t been the same team that coach Jay Wright guided to these championships. After dropping a ton of its best players from last year’s title-winning group, the Wildcats had an up-and-down year and lost five of the final eight regular-season Big East games. However they also got hot over the past week, capping off a year where they won the Big East regular-season and conference-tournament titles — and had one of the 20 greatest offenses in the country according to KenPom (powered by an absurd amount of 3-pointers). Our power ratings believe that they’re the fourth-best team at the South despite being the No. 6 seed, and they have a 5 percent chance of earning it back into the Final Four for a third time in four seasons.
Don’t bet on: No. 4 Kansas State. Coach Bruce Weber’s Wildcats almost made the Final Four last season, however they might find it tougher this time around. K-State comes with an elite defense (it ranks fourth in the nation according to Pomeroy’s evaluations ), but its crime is more prone to battles — and may be down its second-leading scorer, forward Dean Wade, who missed the team’s Big 12 tournament loss to Iowa State with a foot injury. A barbarous draw that provides the Wildcats tough No. 13 seed UC Irvine in the first round, then places them contrary to the Wisconsin-Oregon winner at Round two, could limit their potential to progress deep into a second consecutive tournament.
Cinderella see: No. 12 Oregon. In accordance with our model, the Ducks have the best Sweet 16 chances (24 percent) of any double-digit seed at the championship, over twice that of some other offender. Oregon struggled to string together wins for most of the regular season, and its odds appeared sunk after 7-foot-2 phenom Bol Bol was lost for the season with a foot injury in January. However, the Ducks have rallied to win eight consecutive games heading into the tournament, such as a convincing victory in Saturday’s Pac-12 championship. Oregon fits a similar mould as K-State — great defense with a suspect crime — but that’s telling, given that the Ducks are a 12-seed and the Wildcats are a No. 4. If they meet in the Round of 32, we provide Oregon a 47 percent chance at the upset.
Player to watch: Grant Williams, Tennessee
The junior has come a long way from being”just a fat boy with some skill.” Williams, the de facto leader of Rick Barnes’s Volunteers, has bullied the SEC within the past two seasons, collecting two consecutive conference player of the year honors.
The Vols might only feature the best offense of Barnes’s coaching career — and we are talking about a guy who coached Kevin Durant! A lot of that offensive potency could be traced to Williams, the team’s top scorer and rebounder, who positions in the 97th percentile in scoring efficiency, according to data courtesy of Synergy Sports.
Williams possesses an old-man match you might find at a local YMCA, a back-to-the-basket, footwork-proficient offensive assault that manifests primarily in post-ups, where he positions in the 98th percentile in scoring efficacy and shoots a adjusted field-goal percentage of 56.1. He can get the Volunteers buckets in the waning minutes of games, too, as he ranks from the 96th percentile in isolation scoring efficiency.
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Oklahoma over No. 8 Ole Miss (53 percent); No. 12 Oregon over No. 5 Wisconsin (45 percent); No. 10 Iowa over No. 7 Cincinnati (34 percent)

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